Ahmed Abdel Wahab
Every war will have its own motives, causes and objectives. There are no endless wars, or crises that will last indefinitely. One day the swords will return to their sheaths. The enemies of yesterday will sit at one table, both in the closed vaults and in front of the camera lenses. Historical and root-striking roots.
In those moments when politicians took off their war uniforms and dressed in the stylish fashion that suits the media show, there are millions of women who are bereaved and death with forbidden weapons does not differentiate much from the death of the weapon of the analyst, the cities were completely settled on the ground, countries need decades to come back to what it was Before the outbreak of war, disasters, wounds and pain will remain stuck in memory.
All of the above was the result of a political decision at one point, and certainly the above does not apply to those who were forced to fight to defend the land and the offer, if the world has a share of humanity, does not leave all those who caused the outbreak of war without trial, The killing of lives is as simple as that.
We have not seen in our modern era a war that one of the parties was able to resolve completely without the political side having a big role in it and arranging the post-war situation. There are wars that lasted for many years and months and some days or hours, then negotiations and pressure on the defeated or weak and things end, The war is raging in another area and for illogical reasons that could have been tolerated or discussed between the parties, but there is interest for a third party, the maker and the arms seller, in fueling tension from one region to another.
In order to avoid the subject of the "secret deal between Saudi Arabia and Yemen to end the war,” when the Yemeni revolution broke out in 2011, Saudi Arabia played a major role in persuading its ally President Ali Abdullah Saleh to leave power and appoint a new "interim” president until elections are held. Saleh "Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi”, did not mind Riyadh because of its relations with Saudi Arabia during the years of war against the Houthis and the South at the same time.
Hadi took matters, and the decisions were issued by Riyadh before Sana’a, which created a kind of anger and resentment, until a national dialogue conference was agreed in 2014, and there were major differences ended with the custody of Hadi by the Houthis in cooperation with the forces of Saleh, Hadi "to resign as a condition for his release, which happened and left Hadi Sanaa to Riyadh, and announced his adherence to the presidency and retreat from the resignation.
At this time, the Houthis "Ansar Allah” were approaching Aden. Here, according to previous agreements, Saudi Arabia demanded military intervention. This was not personally motivated by Hadi, who lives in Riyadh. Riyadh and its allies raised flags of war. Bearing the words of victory, and that the battle will take hours or days at the latest.
Without going into the long details, this is the third year of the war, and Saudi Arabia and its allies have not won a victory on the ground except for what the southerners have done in defense of their cause of "independence.” More than one southern leader and members of the Transitional Council have told us that they will not fight towards Sana’a "Ansar Allah” on the borders of the south that preceded the unification in 1990, and the conflicts between the two main components of the alliance in the war in Yemen, "Saudi Arabia and the UAE,” and the timing of the declaration of the Southern Transitional Council, and the conflict between the Council and the government, "Hadi” .
With every passing day, Riyadh loses a lot and al-Houthis gain new experiences in martial arts, camouflage, media wars and even weapons development, which has recently emerged in missile strikes on land, sea or air targets. Riyadh accounts at all. This is the first time that Saudi territory has become under the real threat of Yemeni missiles.
During the past months there have been media campaigns for the alliance talking about splits between "Ansarullah and the Conference”, which was met with negation by all parties in Sanaa, and some circles spoke about the request of former President "Saleh” dialogue with Riyadh, which was denied in more than Once again, these news cannot be considered a kind of fabrication because of its repetition, but we believe that it was a kind of prelude to what is
coming, and what proves that there is a deal is being prepared in secret between the parties to the conflict in Sana’a and between Riyadh and Emirati sponsorship. Yemeni parliament in Sanaa initiative to bring peace But they have not been discussed so far. All indications are that there is a deal that will be announced soon.
An American website specializing in politics and world affairs said that there was a big deal for peace in Yemen, but he said it would be "wrong” and could lead to an endless war.
Who threatens security in Yemen … Iran or Saudi Arabia?
In an analysis published on its Web site, the Just Security Forum revealed a "big deal” being made in secret, with UAE and Saudi officials recently meeting with representatives of both pro-Haidi and pro-GPC wings.
Reliable reports have been reported that an agreement will create a new government coalition between the General People’s Congress and Reform and the inauguration of his former deputy and Prime Minister Khaled Bahah. Ahmed Ali Saleh’s son will be defense minister on the grounds that this deal is a complement to the GCC initiative. The deal puts Saleh’s son into the de facto ruler of Yemen, just as his father always wants.
The analysis of the American security forum, that this deal, which was negotiated without the participation of the UN envoy would be disastrous for Yemen, because it is just a modification of the same old corrupt and criminal elites that have been running Yemen in the land over the past 40 years.
"The deal is also a recipe for continued violence, because it fails to address the local grievances that have caused the current civil war, and the new one that emerged from it. Even if Saleh abandons the Houthis in seeking Saudi approval, the Houthis are now the strongest armed movement in the country. Yemen, will not give up capital and other spoils without another fight. ”
He pointed out that southern separatists, who currently control multiple provinces and many powerful militias, will not ease vague promises of autonomy under this new deal.
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the local branch of Daqash, both of which have made significant regional and material gains since the start of the war, will continue to flourish as long as Yemen remains unstable. Millions of innocent Yemenis trapped between armed groups and politicians involved in risk will continue to starve. And suffering, while the mobile world’s attention shifts to a new war.
In order to effectively marginalize the major deal, the US security analysis suggests that the United States, the United Nations and the rest of the international community should provide a framework that meets the demands of the 2011 revolution, which called for an end to corrupt rule and authoritarian rule, and allows a government based on merit and will to take the wait.
He recommended that all parties to the conflict agree that no individual who has held the post of President of the State or has been granted a presidential appointment under President Saleh or the Houthi-GPC administration will be allowed to assume public office after December 2018. Yemen has more than enough Bureaucrats and civil society leaders to run the state without the help or "obstruction” of senior politicians.
He stressed the need for a peaceful settlement to include accountability for violations by all parties to the conflict. He stressed the importance that the peace agreement should not include any promises of immunity from prosecution and should repeal the immunity agreements included in the 2011 GCC Cooperation Initiative.
All the signs indicate that Riyadh wants to get rid of this quagmire at any cost. The Houthis know well that Riyadh’s losses in a long war of attrition will be catastrophic, and they know well that their losses will not be big. They have nothing to lose. Only months will pass this agreement.